Saturday, 31 March 2012

Jeremy Lin will have surgery on his left knee meniscus; season likely over

The Knicks announced about an hour before today's Cavs game that Jeremy Lin has a small tear of the meniscus in his left knee (presumably the lateral, rather than medial, meniscus) and will undergo surgery early next week. The expected recovery time for Lin from the surgery is 6 weeks. Lin called the tear a chronic condition due to overuse.

According to a study on NBA meniscal injuries published before the 2011-12 season, "The number of days missed for lateral meniscal tears and medial meniscal tears was 43.8 ± 35.7 days and 40.9 ± 29.7 days, respectively, and was not statistically different."

In his pre-game press conference, Lin said an MRI on his left knee was performed on March 26, after his last game, the March 24 win over the Pistons. He knew surgery was inevitable, but hoped it could be postponed until after the season. He was hopeful when the swelling went down; however, the pain remained the same. The Knicks and Lin tried a week of treatment. Today, when Lin still couldn't cut or jump, the call for surgery was made. Given Lin's reliance on lift in his shooting, it's likely his knee injury contributed to his shaky shooting in the last few games he played.

With Davis playing hurt, Lin would have been the undisputed starting PG the rest of the season. Lin says he'll try to return early enough to help the team, but the regular season ends on April 26 or roughly 3.5 weeks. A 6 week recovery would mean Lin returning in the 2nd round of the play-offs. I hope Lin gets to play in the post-season just for the learning experience, but I also don't want him to rush back and risk a more serious injury. However, while holding onto the 8th seed is feasible, injuries have hurt the Knicks' hopes of making it out of the 1st round. Stoudamire may not return this season and, with his back injury, may not be able to help much if he does return. Jeffries has a chronic knee condition that has caused him to miss weeks at a time. Anthony, Davis, and Chandler are playing hurt. Toney Douglas may be restored as the back-up point guard. Douglas failed as a PG under D'Antoni, who asks a lot of his PGs, but he may be able to play the back-up role under Woodson, who gives less responsibility to his PGs.

An interesting PR benefit of Lin's season-ending injury is the media have framed the story as the Knicks losing a star and team leader. The Legend of Linsanity seems secure. It was a heck of a 2 month run.

Add: An explanation of Jeremy Lin's contract situation as a restricted free agent this off-season.

Eric

My ticket for the $640,000,000 Mega Millions lottery

My ticket:


The March 30, 2012 winning numbers for the 640 million dollars Mega Millions lottery were 46, 23, 38, 4, 2, Megaball 23.

Oh well.

Eric

Friday, 30 March 2012

Jeremy Lin declines Stuy '12 invitation to speak at graduation

We Asian American men have projected onto Jeremy Lin the enormously weighty status of Asian American male cultural representative, pioneer, and hero. The viability of that assigned status depends both on Lin's success as an NBA guard and ability to be a role model tested by intense public and media scrutiny. So far, wondrously, Lin has lived up to the hero we want him to be. We're asking too much of a young man whose cultural power depends on a very precarious professional path. Aroused by Linsanity, though, we've coupled our egos and hopes to him.

The Stuyvesant High School class of 2012 invited Jeremy Lin via youtube to be their class speaker:



Interesting that this year's graduation is at the Palace Theater on Broadway. My class graduated at Avery Fisher Hall in Lincoln Center.

Jeremy declined via his twitter account:
Jeremy Lin
@JLin7
Stuyvesant High! Awesome video...so honored to have been invited. I cant make it BUT im making a response video and will visit if possible!
It should be easy for Jeremy to visit Stuy since he lives in the nearby W Downtown residences.


View Larger Map

Schedule-wise, the NBA season should be about at the end of the Finals on June 25. Perhaps NBA players are contractually obligated not to commit to any engagement that may conflict with a game, even during post-season rounds a player is unlikely to reach.

I hope Jeremy changes his mind. He has an opportunity to make history. For the Stuyvesant seniors - especially the young men - on the cusp of their journey to Asian American adulthood, Jeremy Lin is deeply personal. Jeremy is them. Jeremy's speech, broadcast by traditional and social media, would be bigger than a speech to Stuyvesant's graduating class. It would be the commencement address for an entire rising generation of Asian Americans.

Add: Stuff Jeremy Lin wrote for his HS newspaper.

Eric

Sunday, 18 March 2012

Jeremy Lin on a hero's journey

A professional-quality fan tribute to Jeremy Lin with Michael Jordan speaking:



Another tribute to Lin by the same guy.

The arc of a hero's journey can be simplified to a rise from humble beginnings to the zenith of stardom, followed by a drop to the nadir of defeat or metaphorical death, then resurrection and the climb to the actualization of the hero.

Linsanity was born in 2 weeks and took about that long to die. 2 weeks ago, I said the next 2 weeks would likely determine Jeremy's role for the play-offs. A lot has happened since then. From the zenith of 7 straight wins and rising to a .500 record and 8th place under Linsanity, then alternating wins and losses, the Knicks fell to the nadir of 6 straight losses and dropping out of the play-offs. The good teams and top PGs adjusted to Lin. He looked out of his depth against the Heat and Celtics. Before that, Deron Williams had torched him in their rematch. The Celtics, Mavs, Spurs, 76ers, and Bulls made him look bad during the losing streak, though Lin had a quality outing in a loss against Brandon Jennings and the Bucks. Jason Kidd bullied him. Rondo and Rose severely outplayed him. Poor team defense made Lin look worse when he got no help. The team offense broke down as Anthony and D'Antoni clashed. The team struggled badly, Lin struggled and looked unconfident, and Coach D'Antoni resigned.

When assistant coach Mike Woodson took over as interim head coach before the Blazers game, we didn't know whether Lin would be a casualty along with D'Antoni. Whether he'd stay as the 1st string PG over Baron Davis, become Davis's back-up, or be dropped behind Mike Bibby in the rotation as 3rd string PG.

In Woodson's first game as Knicks head coach, the Knicks blew out a dysfunctional Blazers team by 42 points. Before the Pacers game at MSG, Woodson assured Lin would remain the starter. Davis outplayed Lin in the blowout win over the Pacers but strained his hamstring, thus settling the question of Lin's role given Davis's age and injury history. Even if Davis outplays Lin for the rest of the season, Davis's role and minutes need to be limited for his own protection.

The 2nd game on the back-to-back in Indianapolis promised to be a big test for the team and Lin in the new Woodson era. The Pacers are a proud, rising, young-veteran, mid-level play-off team with good chemistry, a quick PG, and good defense. The Pacers were determined to protect their home court after the blow-out loss at MSG. The Pacers came out focused. The Knicks and Lin passed the test.

Lin played tough against a physical team and his defense on Darren Collison was solid with improved help behind him. He was confident and made big plays to lead his team to the win. Lin filled the stat sheet with 19 points on 10 FGAs, 7 rebounds, 6 assists (should have had 10), a block, and a steal. The Pacers tried double-team traps, full court pressure, and switching the bigger Hill and George onto him in response to Lin's improved ball-handling. He showed a stronger left on his dribble, he attacked the double-team traps, and maintained his dribble in the half court. On several drives, he carried Collison on his hip. Lin's passing was still shaky in the half court, but hopefully his passing nuances will improve with experience.

Despite the speculation Lin's game would disappear with D'Antoni, Lin has looked more comfortable in Woodson's more-structured system. It looks like his strengths have been preserved by Woodson while his weaknesses have been mitigated. Lin's strong all-around performance in Indianapolis is the way, during Linsanity, Knicks fans had hoped Lin would adjust his game when Anthony returned. Lin played confidently and, though the ball returned to Anthony at the end of the game, Lin had his coach's green light to make plays down the stretch. Lin's defense looked better in large part because the help was back. Woodson's use of more set plays eased the pressure on Lin. Lin won't have as many touches under Woodson, but he can be more productive with his touches.

Pundits writing off Lin as an inflated product of D'Antoni's system overlook that Lin is a converted PG who was a do-everything play-making scoring guard before the NBA. At this point of his development, Lin is still more SG/PG combo guard, with a combo guard's ball handling and (half-court) passing limitations, than NBA point guard. With the good teams having made defensive adjustments to Lin, the pared down PG role comes just in time for Lin. Lin no longer has to handle the ball as much, create everything, break down every defense, nor make every decision. Reducing his PG responsibilities in Woodson's more-structured system means less freedom for Lin, but it should also be a better fit for him at this early learning stage of his career. Lin's weaknesses as a PG will be less exposed and he can fall back on his strengths with more off-the-ball and match-up work when defenses shift their focus to Anthony.

During Linsanity, Lin played like the Suns MVP Steve Nash. He burned star-bright but we knew such an incredible run couldn't last forever. Lin rose and he fell. Lin now looks like he's settling into the long-term task of building up a stable foundation for his career, more like the Mavericks stage of Steve Nash's career. The 2nd Pacers game felt like the start of a sustainable developmental curve and the beginning of the actualization stage of Lin's career. Linsanity can come back someday on a stable long-term basis, if and when Lin convinces a team he's ready to be their centerpiece and leader on a Steve Nash or Chris Paul level. It's a realistic possibility - Lin has served notice to the NBA world of his potential to be that rare player. Steve Nash didn't become Suns MVP Steve Nash right away, either; Nash first became a full-time starter for the Mavs in his 3rd season. Lin is already an undisputed starter in his 2nd season.

As for the question of Lin's play-off role this season, the Knicks are now competing with the Ellis-Jennings run-and-gun Bucks for the 8th seed and Lin is secure as the Knicks starting PG. I hope the Knicks make the play-offs, even if it leads to a 1st round exit, so Lin can gain invaluable play-off experience. I'll end this post with a question reflecting my confidence in Jeremy: When will Jeremy Lin achieve his 1st triple double? This season or next season?

Eric

Sunday, 4 March 2012

The next 2 weeks for Jeremy Lin may define his play-off role

Jeremy Lin went from almost cut to NBA star in 2 magical weeks in February. Starting with the win over the Nets on Feb 4 and culminating with the win over the Mavs on Feb 19, Lin led Knicks on a 8-1 run, including 7 in a row, to pull the Knicks' season record up to .500 and 8th place in the East.

The Knicks are a play-off team because of him. Lin has proven he can beat the non-contending teams and he excelled against contenders with older PGs, the Mavs (rematch tomorrow) and Lakers. But by making the Knicks a play-off team, Lin has raised the standard by which he's judged. Lin has to be compared to play-off PGs and judged against play-off teams. Lin played poorly against the Heat before the all-star break and played poorly again in today's loss to the Celtics. The next 2 weeks in March may well determine whether Lin is the Knicks' 1st team PG in the play-offs.

Sun, Mar 4 @Boston
Tue, Mar 6 @Dallas
Wed, Mar 7 @San Antonio
Fri, Mar 9 @Milwaukee
Sun, Mar 11 vs Philadelphia
Mon, Mar 12 @Chicago
Wed, Mar 14 vs Portland
Fri, Mar 16 vs Indiana
Sat, Mar 17 @Indiana

Lin hasn't adjusted yet to the top teams learning to attack him on offense and stop him on defense. His attacking style has also been dampened with Anthony and Stoudamire's return. Movement and spacing have been hurt by their return and the paint has become crowded (indicator: the disappearance of Landry Fields's movement and spacing dependent game). Chandler and Stoudamire, with their defenders, look like they're running into each other in the paint. The formerly attacking, swaggering, high-energy, clutch-shooting Lin has become deferential and passive, floating on the perimeter like Mike Bibby. The Knicks seem undecided whether Lin should be pass-first or creating off his own scoring. Lin looks more comfortable creating off his own scoring.

The most troubling aspects of Lin's play are his defense and dribble. Lin looked like a solid defender with quick hands and feet at the beginning of his February run, but his inability to stay in front of point guards or get over screens has forced the Knicks to overhelp, thus breaking down the defense. The subpar defense of Anthony and Stoudamire are culprits as well. Lin was also praised in February for maintaining his dribble and penetration, but as teams have refined their scouting report on Lin, he has reacted by backing out and picking up his dribble early. Lin is no longer controlling the tempo or creating. Worse than losing the games, Lin looked out of his depth at PG against the Heat and Celtics. Lin just doesn't look confident anymore, unlike the aggressive PG who took it to the Lakers and Mavs last month.

Against the Heat, Lin was -19 and Baron Davis was +5. Against the Celtics, Lin was -9 and Davis was +10. If Lin can't make the adjustment and struggles through the next 2 weeks, the Knicks will have to decide whether Davis should take over 1st team PG duties for the play-offs. Lin can answer the question by playing well the next 2 weeks.

To improve spacing and movement, add shooting and quickness to the 1st team, and open the floor to help Lin as a playmaker, I'd like to see Anthony moved to the Shawn Marion role at 4, Stoudamire come off the bench, and Smith start at the 3. The defense should actually improve because Anthony would not be worse defending PFs than Stoudamire and Smith is a better defender than Anthony at the 3.

Add: Good perspective article by Howard Beck in the NY Times that says what I've been saying: Lin has proven he's an NBA player, and with his hot streak over, and "Linsanity" deflated by some poor performances, Lin can now settle down and begin his NBA learning curve in earnest.

Eric